The October 2023 World Economic Outlook, has it that, future markets indicate a projected 16.5% year-on-year decline in crude oil prices, averaging $80.5, compared to the 2022 average of $96.4.

These prices are expected to continue decreasing to $72.7 by 2026. If this trend holds, it suggests that fuel prices at the pumps may remain relatively stable for the remainder of the year.

The International Energy Agency anticipates an increase in oil demand by 2023, surpassing supply levels in the latter half of the year. However, the report notes that there is significant uncertainty surrounding the price outlook.

Potential upside price risks include further production cuts by OPEC+, military tensions in the Black Sea, and insufficient investment in fossil fuel extraction.

Conversely, downside price risks could result from a global economic downturn, reduced Chinese oil demand, and a faster adoption of electric vehicles.

While fuel prices experienced a marginal increase at the beginning of the month, it is unlikely that prices will rise in the second pricing window starting on October 16, 2023. Crude oil prices saw a 4.4% increase between February and August 2023, primarily due to a rebound in July and August.

However, these prices remain well below their peak of $115 in June 2022.

On the demand side, factors such as a slower-than-expected recovery in China's oil consumption, concerns over temporary economic downturns due to banking issues, and tighter monetary policies in major economies contributed to downward price pressures, especially in the second quarter of 2023.

Regarding supply, OPEC+ announced output cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April, along with additional voluntary cuts of 1 mb/d by Saudi Arabia and 0.3 mb/d by Russia.

These reductions were only partially offset by significant oil output growth in non-OPEC countries, notably the United States, where oil production is expected to increase by 1.1 mb/d this year.