The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a decrease in Ghana's debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio, which is projected to decrease from 92.4% in 2022 to 84.9% in 2023, as indicated in its October 2023 Fiscal Monitor.

This trend is anticipated to persist over the next five years, with the debt-to-GDP ratio forecasted to be 81.5% in 2024, and subsequently at 78.8% in 2025, 75.8% in 2026, 72.8% in 2027, and 70.0% in 2028.

This shift is anticipated to occur following the expected external debt restructuring, which is expected to result in a decrease in the country's debt.

However, the exact amount saved from the domestic debt restructuring remains unknown at this time.

Revenue-to-GDP ratio to exceed 16% in next five years

The IMF is also anticipating a steady increase in Ghana's revenue-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio through 2028.

In 2023, the government's revenue-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 15.7%, slightly lower than the 15.8% recorded in 2022.

Subsequently, from 2024 to 2028, the revenue-to-GDP ratio is estimated at 16.6%, 17.3%, 18.2%, 18.2%, and 18.1%, respectively.

This represents a significant improvement compared to the rates observed over the past decade.

However, in 2023 and 2024, the country's revenue-to-GDP ratio is expected to dip to 16% and 16.2%, respectively.

Expenditure to remain within 20-21% bracket

In contrast, the expenditure-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio is expected to decrease from 27% in 2022 to 20.3% in 2023. Subsequently, from 2024 to 2028, the expenditure-to-GDP ratio is forecasted to be 20.7%, 20.8%, 21.2%, 20.8%, and 20.9%, respectively.

Ghana’s public debt up ¢6.3bn within 2 months to reach ¢575.5bn in June 2023

Ghana's public debt increased by approximately ¢6.3 billion from April to June 2023, reaching ¢575.5 billion by June 2023, as reported by the Bank of Ghana. This amount is equivalent to $52.3 billion, constituting approximately 71.9% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The marginal rise in the country's total debt was primarily attributed to a slight depreciation of the cedi against the dollar during that period.

According to the September 2023 Summary of Economic and Financial Data, the debt stock was ¢473.2 billion in December 2022, accounting for about 77.5% of GDP. Subsequently, it increased to ¢547.8 billion ($50.7 billion) by the end of January 2023, followed by ¢564.1 billion ($51.2 billion) and ¢569.5 billion ($51.7 billion) in February and March 2023, respectively.