Farmers in Ghana could face difficulties growing their crops and raising livestock in the coming months, while households may have to prepare for possible water shortages as hotter and drier conditions are expected across much of the country.

The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) has warned that a developing strong El Niño event could affect Ghana’s weather through the first half of 2027, bringing prolonged dry spells, increased dust levels and above-average temperatures.

In a technical advisory published on October 30, the Agency said the event, which is developing in the Pacific Ocean, could have significant effects on the country’s weather.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that occurs when the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. This affects weather patterns in different parts of the world, including rainfall and temperatures in West Africa.

Although much of Ghana is expected to experience drier conditions, GMet has cautioned that some parts of the south could record above-normal rainfall, with the possibility of flooding.

The Agency said observations from its monitoring systems, as well as international climate institutions such as the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), point to a potentially strong El Niño event.

It is expected to peak between November 2026 and January 2027 before gradually weakening in the first half of next year.

GMet’s projections show that most parts of Ghana are likely to experience below-normal rainfall, although some areas could receive more rain than usual.

These include inland parts of the Greater Accra and Central regions, south-western parts of the Volta and Eastern regions, parts of the Bono and Savannah regions, as well as north-western areas of the Upper West Region.

Temperatures are also expected to remain above average in many parts of the country. However, relatively cooler conditions are expected in the south-west and parts of the Volta Region, particularly between Ho and Kete Krachi.

GMet expects the dry season to begin in late November 2026 and continue until March 2027, with many areas likely to experience particularly hot, dry and dusty conditions.

The conditions could increase the risk of bushfires and water shortages while putting additional pressure on crops and livestock.

Northern Ghana could also face health concerns, as the combination of high temperatures and dusty conditions may increase the seasonal risk of meningitis.

The Agency further warned that heat stress is expected to be particularly severe between February and April 2027, especially in the northern parts of the country.

However, it said the timing and performance of the 2027 rainy seasons remain uncertain and will depend on how weather conditions develop.

Precautionary measures

With farmers likely to be among those affected, GMet has advised them to follow its weather forecasts and guidance from the Ministry of Food and Agriculture before planting or replanting their crops.

It has also encouraged farmers to consider early-maturing and drought-tolerant crop varieties where necessary and avoid bush burning.

Residents in northern Ghana have been urged to reduce their exposure to dust and seek medical attention immediately if they experience symptoms such as fever, severe headache or a stiff neck.

The Agency has also advised the public to drink enough water during periods of intense heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest hours of the day and check on vulnerable people, including older persons, young children and those who are unwell.

Households and communities have also been encouraged to conserve water and rely on official sources for weather updates.

Despite the forecast of below-normal rainfall across much of the country, GMet has cautioned that sudden heavy downpours and localised flooding remain possible.

Communities along the Volta River, as well as residents in flood-prone and low-lying urban areas, have therefore been urged to remain alert and follow safety instructions from the National Disaster Management Organisation (NADMO) and the Volta River Authority (VRA).

GMet said it is monitoring the El Niño event daily and will continue to provide updated weather forecasts as conditions change, alongside its regular ten-day agricultural bulletins.

The Agency will also work with stakeholders in disaster management, energy, agriculture, water resources, health, local government, transport, minerals and maritime sectors to ensure that its forecasts inform timely and targeted preparedness measures.