Uncertainty looms over the likely victor as Ghana approaches the December 2024 presidential elections, with contrasting polls painting divergent outcomes for the flagbearers of the two major political parties tipped to be the forerunners.

Recent data from Global InfoAnalytics suggests that John Dramani Mahama, the flagbearer of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), maintains his lead in the poll with 51.1% of the votes.

In contrast, a separate poll from Outcomes International indicates that Dr Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) will emerge with 49.4% of the votes, while Mahama follows closely with 45.1%. This divergence in polling outcomes raises critical questions about voter sentiment and the potential for an election runoff, leaving political analysts and the electorate alike in a state of uncertainty.

The final field poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics also reveals that using the likely voters’ model, Mahama is at 49.3%, while Bawumia is at 35.9%. The race is unlikely to go into a runoff as the yearly average of the poll shows Mahama at 53% and Bawumia at 36%. Voter apathy is expected to be a challenge for the governing NPP, as 16% of voters who say they will not vote are their supporters.

Importantly, the outcome of the December elections will depend on which candidate receives greater support from their base, as well as their ability to win floating voters. The poll suggests that while Bawumia receives 88% support from his base, Mahama attracts 96%, giving him an 8-point advantage. Among floating voters, Mahama leads Bawumia 54% to 23%, a 31-point advantage.

The Outcomes International poll highlights that less than 1% of the votes will be shared among other candidates, with 5.2% still undecided. A total of 25,911 respondents were interviewed across all 276 constituencies in the country, and the survey suggests that a runoff could be inevitable, as neither major party is projected to secure an outright majority in the first round.

Furthermore, the survey indicates that 49% of respondents identify with the NPP and NDC, with a considerable 3% yet to decide their preference. While Bawumia’s campaign has targeted Muslim demographics, the poll shows a significant decline in support among this group, dropping by nearly 4% from July to October 2024.

Additionally, among first-time voters, Mahama now leads with 46%, compared to Bawumia's 38%. Notably, Mahama has gained support from 19% of voters who previously supported Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020, with greater switches occurring in regions like Greater Accra and Central.

Mahama is said to lead in twelve regions, with Bawumia only leading in four. As both candidates navigate this complex landscape, the polls reflect a deeply competitive race, with the possibility of smaller parties influencing the final outcome. With voter dissatisfaction at 77% among respondents, and the significance of party manifestos driving voter choices, the stakes are high,Meanwhile, a recent survey by the Office of the President suggests that a run-off in the upcoming general presidential elections could be inevitable. This implies that the two major political parties; neither the National Democratic Congress (NDC) being led by former President John Dramani Mahama nor the New Patriotic Party (NPP), with its flagbearer, Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, are projected to secure an outright majority in the first round.

A total of 25,911 respondents were interviewed across all the 276 constituencies in the country. Out of this number, 12,664 (49%) were males with 13,247 (51%) being females, the survey shows.

When asked which political party they would vote for, 46.3% of the respondents mentioned the NDC and the NPP respectively while a considerable 3% are yet to decide their preference.

"The smaller parties and independent candidates shared 4.4% of the votes. This means the smaller parties have the capacity to push the elections to a run-off. Neither the NDC nor NPP can win the entire undecided component of electorates," the survey highlighted.

In approximately 66 days, the country will reach a decisive conclusion, finalizing all projections and unveiling the true victor of the 2024 general elections.