Petrol prices have continued to fall since the second half of October, with the NPA reducing the minimum price floor from GH¢16.45 per litre in the first half of October to GH¢15.39 in the first half of November.

LPG prices, however, increased sharply in the second half of October before recording a slight reduction in the first half of November.

In the pricing window, the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC) has hinted at 8.23% from November 16,in petrol prices while diesel prices are also expected to decline.

However, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) faces a projected 21.10% increase per kilogram during the second pricing window of November.

COMAC has linked the price adjustments to the products to drop in prices on the international level while the cedi is projected to record a slower rate of depreciation.

Expected fuel price changes

The projected increase in LPG prices is linked to higher international prices recorded in the previous pricing window, which are yet to be fully reflected in the domestic market.

COMAC estimates that petrol could sell at GH¢15.62 per litre following the expected reduction.

Diesel prices are also projected to drop by between 1.79% and 4.42%, bringing the price to about GH¢18 per litre.

LPG, on the other hand, could increase to GH¢23.17 per kilogram.

The chamber noted that these figures are projections and that actual pump prices will depend on the decisions of individual oil marketing companies.

Factors behind the projections

The expected reductions in petrol and diesel prices are largely driven by a fall in international refined fuel prices, according to COMAC.

Crude oil prices dropped by 16.14% to US$104.25 per barrel during the review period, the first significant decline since August 2026.

COMAC attributed the fall to reduced geopolitical tensions, hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East and an increase in OPEC+ output to 41.23 million barrels per day.

International petrol prices also fell by 16.30%, while diesel prices declined by 5.13%. LPG prices recorded a 6.42% reduction over the same period.

However, the decline in international LPG prices is not expected to bring immediate relief to consumers, as previous price increases under the tender arrangement are yet to be fully passed on to the local market.

The chamber further indicated that the cedi's depreciation slowed to 0.15% between October 28 and November 11, helping to reduce pressure on fuel prices from exchange rate movements.

The government-industry intervention to cushion diesel consumers against rising costs also remains in place.

Oil marketing companies adjust prices

Some oil marketing companies have already reduced their petrol and diesel prices ahead of the November 16 pricing window, although it is not yet clear whether they will make further cuts based on COMAC's projections.

Star Oil has adjusted its prices three times over the past week and is currently selling petrol at GH¢15.55 per litre and diesel at GH¢18.37.

Allied is selling petrol at GH¢15.50 per litre, while diesel goes for GH¢18.20.

JP has also reduced its petrol price from GH¢16.43, quoted on October 16, to GH¢15.95. Its diesel price has dropped from GH¢18.97 to GH¢18.35.

The current prices at some stations mean petrol is already selling below COMAC's projected price of GH¢15.62 per litre.

Fuel prices in Ghana are reviewed on the first and 16th of every month.

For the November 16 pricing window, the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has set minimum price floors of GH¢13.69 per litre for petrol and GH¢16.73 per litre for diesel.

These figures are minimum benchmarks, not final retail prices.

According to the NPA, they exclude premiums charged by International Oil Trading Companies, operating margins of Bulk Import, Distribution and Export Companies, and margins charged by Oil Marketing Companies and LPG Marketing Companies.

The respective companies will determine those charges independently under the prescribed Petroleum Products Pricing Formula.