Prices of petrol and diesel are set to see a marginal fall effective Friday, October 16, 2026, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is set for an 18.5% increase per kilogram.

The projection was announced by the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC) in its latest pricing outlook for the second pricing window of October 2026.

Projections breakdown

Petrol is projected to decline by almost 2% to GH¢17.67 per litre, while diesel could fall by 3.32% to GH¢19.30 per litre.

During the October 1 pricing window, most oil marketing companies maintained their prices following a GH¢2 levy on diesel and a government intervention in which Tema Oil Refinery and Sentuo Oil supplied refined products to the companies at previous prices.

Reasons for the price changes

COMAC expects petrol and diesel prices to see a decline at the pumps despite an increase in international crude oil prices and a falling cedi.

According to COMAC, the average crude oil price increased by 2.03 per cent to US$126.73 per barrel for the October 16 pricing window, up from approximately US$124.21 per barrel in the preceding pricing period.

The increase came amid renewed concerns about global oil supplies, following concerns from Ukraine over a proposed US-backed energy ceasefire and fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia during the war with Iran.

However, refined petroleum products recorded different price movements over the period. LPG prices increased by 7.77%, while diesel and petrol prices fell by 6.68% and 3.93%, respectively.

The cedi also weakened against the US dollar, depreciating by 1.61% to GH¢11.8222 per dollar based on average bank rates between September 26 and October 11.

Despite the pressure from crude oil prices and the exchange rate, petrol and diesel are projected to record only marginal reductions in the next pricing window. The outlook is consistent with forecasts made by several analysts earlier this month.

NPA reduces petrol and diesel price floors

Separately, the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has lowered the minimum prices at which petrol and diesel can be sold for the October 16 pricing window, while raising the floor for LPG.

According to a Market data report shared by Joy Business, the minimum petrol price has dropped from GH¢16.45 to GH¢16.09 per litre.

The diesel price floor has also been reduced from GH¢17.97 to GH¢17.09 per litre.

In contrast, the minimum price for LPG has increased from GH¢11.10 to GH¢13.87 per kilogram.

The NPA explained that the prescribed price floors do not include premiums charged by International Oil Trading Companies (IOTCs), operating margins applied by Bulk Import, Distribution and Export Companies (BIDECs), or the margins charged by Oil Marketing Companies and LPG Marketing Companies.

These charges will be determined by the respective companies in line with the Petroleum Products Pricing Formula.