The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a 17% increase in Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio, rising from 45.3% recorded in 2025 to 53.0% by the end of 2026.

The projection was included in the financial watchdog’s Fiscal Monitor Report, released on the sidelines of the 2026 Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington, DC.

While the report did not indicate what drivers are likely to cause the projected increase, it noted that “Government debt and interest rate projections are based on a post-debt restructuring scenario.”

A report by the Bank of Ghana (BoG) showed that Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio two years ago stood at 61.8% with total debt pegged at GH¢726.7 billion. By 2025, the ratio had eased to 45.3%, with total debt declining to GH¢641 billion.

Despite recent improvements, analysts say the outlook remains uncertain and could change depending on borrowing levels, exchange rate movements, and economic growth.

Some market watchers argue that increased borrowing or further depreciation of the cedi could alter the debt trajectory, while slower economic growth could also weigh on the debt-to-GDP ratio.

In April 2026, the government secured approximately GH¢2.7 billion through the issuance of a 7-year bond, marking a return to long-term domestic borrowing following the Debt Exchange Programme. The bond was issued at a coupon rate of 12.5% and is scheduled to mature on March 29, 2033.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio will decline further to 50.7% in 2027.

Data from the Ghana Statistical Service indicates that the size of the economy is now estimated at GH¢1.4 trillion, up from GH¢1.1 trillion in 2024.

In the 2026 Budget Statement, Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson outlined several measures aimed at sustaining debt stability. These include expanding access to concessional borrowing, rebuilding the Sinking Fund, implementing debt reprofiling and buyback programmes, and strengthening transparency in public debt reporting.

He said the strategy is aimed at “managing debt, not being managed by it,” adding that Ghana’s goal is to return to a moderate risk of debt distress by 2028.

Ghana remains classified as a debt-distressed country by the IMF, although recent improvements have been acknowledged. The Fund expects Ghana to reach a moderate risk status by 2028 if current reforms are sustained.

Globally, the IMF warns that public debt pressures are rising, with worldwide debt projected to reach 100% of GDP by 2029, driven by higher spending needs and rising interest costs.

The Fund has called for “credible, well-sequenced fiscal adjustment” across countries to address growing vulnerabilities in the global financial system.

Meanwhile, Ghana’s domestic debt rose moderately from GH¢309.8 billion to GH¢333.8 billion by the end of 2025, according to the Bank of Ghana. However, despite the increase, the debt burden eased as a share of the economy due to strong growth in the country’s Gross Domestic Product, which led to a decline in the domestic debt-to-GDP ratio.

According to the March 2026 Monetary Policy Report by the Bank of Ghana, the increase in domestic debt came largely from the short-term instruments marking the government's plan to borrow to build buffers to meet its financial obligations.

Also, the external debt increased in foreign currency terms to reflect new loan disbursement.

However, in local currency terms, it decreased from GH¢416.8 billion in December 2024 to GH¢307.2 billion in December 2025.

The downturn was attributed to the appreciation of the cedi alongside servicing of Eurobond and multilateral obligations, resulting in a reduction in the external debt stock denominated in local currency by GH¢125.2 billion (9% of estimated GDP).

Meanwhile, the provisional debt stock of the central government and guaranteed debt stood at GH¢640.99 billion (45.3% of GDP) at end-December 2025 from GH¢726.7 billion (61.8% of GDP) at end-December 2024.

Out of the total public debt, external debt was GH¢307.2 billion (21.7% of GDP) and domestic debt totalled GH¢333.8 billion (23.6% of GDP).

According to the Bank of Ghana, the sharp decline is reflected in both external and domestic debt-to-GDP ratios.