The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has attributed its upward revision of Ghana’s 2026 economic growth forecast partly to higher global commodity prices, particularly gold.

The Fund’s African Department Director, Zeine Zeidane, said higher commodity prices could boost Ghana’s export earnings, improve its trade balance and support economic growth.

He made the remarks in response to a question from Joy Business during the release of the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook on Wednesday, October 15.

Mr Zeidane also pointed to Ghana’s economic performance in the first half of 2026 as another factor behind the revised forecast, expressing confidence that the momentum would continue.

“We believe that this momentum will be sustained going forward for Ghana,” he said.

Mr Zeidane also commended Ghana’s fiscal performance, noting that the country had maintained progress despite recent shocks from energy prices.

BackgroundThe IMF has raised Ghana’s 2026 economic growth forecast by 1.1 percentage points, from 4.6% to 5.7%, citing expectations of stronger economic activity and increased production of goods and services.

The Fund announced the revised projection in its October 2026 World Economic Outlook, released during its annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

However, the IMF stressed that sustaining the growth momentum would depend on Ghana’s fiscal discipline, export diversification and the resilience of domestic economic activity.

The revised forecast is also above the government’s 4.8% growth target outlined in the 2026 Budget.

The Fund expects economic growth to moderate to 5.2% in 2027, suggesting that the pace of expansion could ease after this year’s stronger performance.

Inflation to ease to 4.8%

The IMF has revised its forecast for Ghana’s year-end inflation rate to 4.8%, down from its April projection of 7.9%, representing a decline of 3.1 percentage points.

The projected rate is below the Bank of Ghana’s inflation target of 8%, which has a tolerance band of two percentage points on either side, giving a range of 6% to 10%.

Ghana’s inflation rate stood at 5.2% in September. The IMF’s forecast of 4.8% by the end of the year therefore points to a further slowdown in the rate at which prices increase.

This does not mean prices will fall. Rather, it means they are expected to rise more slowly.

Inflation remained in single digits at the end of 2025. If the IMF’s projection holds, Ghana will record another year of single-digit inflation in 2026.

Slower inflation could make it easier for households to plan their spending and for businesses to manage costs, set prices and make investment decisions.

However, a lower inflation rate does not automatically mean the cost of living will fall.

The extent to which households benefit will depend partly on whether their incomes improve and prices remain relatively stable.

Even as inflation slows, the prices of food, transport, rent and other essential goods and services may remain high. For households to experience a meaningful improvement in their purchasing power, income growth must keep pace with the cost of living.

Ghana’s improved economic outlook comes amid efforts to control government spending, investments to support economic activity and strong earnings from commodity exports, particularly gold.

Higher gold export earnings can help improve Ghana’s trade balance and strengthen its external position. However, heavy reliance on commodity exports leaves the economy vulnerable to fluctuations in global prices.

The IMF has therefore emphasised the need for Ghana to diversify its exports to reduce its exposure to external shocks and build a more resilient economy over the long term.

Data from the Ghana Statistical Service show that Ghana’s economy grew by 6.0% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026.