The price of fuel saw a sharp rise with speculated threats of shortage globally following the Israel-US corporate attack on Iran on February 28, which disrupted oil supplies from one of the world’s most energy-rich regions. Crude oil jumped from about $67 per barrel before the war (Feb 28) to nearly $97 by March 10, sending gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices soaring worldwide.

Ghana, being one of the dependents of the global oil supply, stakeholders began to express concerns about a possible shortage of fuel across the country. However, the Corporate Affairs Officer of the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR), Godwin Mahama Ayaba, during an appearance on March 11, indicated that Ghana is unlikely to experience fuel shortages despite rising tensions in the Middle East, citing the country’s diversified sources of petroleum imports and growing local refining capacity.

According to him, the NPA recently issued a statement indicating that the situation in the Middle East will not lead to shortages of petroleum products in the country.

“The National Petroleum Authority, which is the regulator, some three to four hours ago issued an official statement assuring all of us that as for shortage, there is no way the Iran–Israel conflict is going to affect us,” he said.

Mr Ayaba explained that Ghana’s fuel import structure significantly reduces the risk of supply disruption because the country imports most of its finished petroleum products from Europe.

“Ghana largely imports from two different areas: Europe and the Arabian region. Where we import most is Europe,” he noted.

“We import about 80 per cent of our finished petroleum products from Europe and about 20 per cent from the Arabian region, where this conflict may have an impact.”

While acknowledging that the Middle East tensions could affect that 20 per cent supply, he said Ghana’s domestic refining capacity is expected to fill the gap.

“So we are likely to lose that 20 per cent, but with TOR coming on stream, we will be able to block that gap,” he said.

Mr Ayaba revealed that the refinery is currently producing about 28,000 barrels and expects output to increase significantly after ongoing upgrades.

“Currently, we are producing about 28,000 barrels. After the tie-in, we will move to about 45,000 and further move to 60,000,” he explained.

He added that increased output from other refineries in the country will also contribute to stabilising supply.

“Sentuo is doing around 36,000 to 40,000 barrels a day, Akwaaba is doing somewhere less than 10,000, and Platon is around a little below 3,000,” he stated.

“Together, all these companies will be able to block that 20 per cent that would have come from the Arabian region.”

Mr Ayaba emphasised that Ghana will still maintain the bulk of its imports from Europe, further ensuring supply stability.

“We will still have the 80 per cent from Europe coming in,” he said.

He therefore urged the public not to panic, reiterating the assurances provided by the National Petroleum Authority.

“I will add my voice to the official communiqué from the NPA that we should rest assured that we are not going to record fuel shortages,” he stated.

Meanwhile, in a separate interview about 3 days ago, Mr Ayaba revealed that TOR is eyeing a sixty-one (61%) percent increase in its production capacity as part of renewed efforts to strengthen operations and improve output at the facility.

Currently, the refinery seeks to expand its crude distillation capability from 28,000 barrels per stream day to 45,000 barrels per stream day.

Speaking during an interview on Citi FM’s Eyewitness News on Monday, March 9, he stated that,

“The refinery is currently undertaking technical processes aimed at expanding its processing capability from 28,000 barrels per stream day to 45,000 barrels per stream day. This represents a sixty-one percent increase in capacity, and it forms part of our broader plans to revitalise operations and enhance TOR’s contribution to Ghana’s petroleum sector.”

He continued that, the planned increase will be achieved through the integration of an additional processing unit, known as the F61 unit, which will operate alongside the existing F1 unit.

Both units will be connected to the refinery’s crude distillation system to improve overall efficiency and output.

Mr Mahama also noted that engineers are currently carrying out some temporary technical steps to connect a new unit to the refinery’s main processing system, which is expected to increase the refinery’s output from the current level.

The refinery is presently operating under a tolling arrangement, a system in which private companies supply crude oil to the facility for processing.

Under this arrangement, the refinery refines the crude and charges a processing fee, while the refined petroleum products are returned to the companies that provided the crude.He explained that under the tolling system, the refinery does not control the marketing or distribution of the finished products, as those decisions are taken by the crude oil suppliers.

Mr Ayaba added that while the refinery’s current nameplate capacity stands at 28,000 barrels per stream day, the introduction of the F61 unit will push output to 45,000 barrels per stream day.

He further indicated that management is also considering plans to expand capacity to about 60,000 barrels per stream day in the medium term.

After several years of inactivity, the management of Tema Oil Refinery announced the resumption of operations. The resumption was possible following the completion of extensive Turnaround Maintenance (TAM) works on the refinery’s Crude Distillation Unit (CDU). Maintenance works began on August 1 and on October 30 in 2025. This information was contained in a press statement released by the management on Saturday, December 27.

TOR’s resumption was expected to boost energy security, industrial growth and national development, potentially saving Ghana up to $10.2 billion in oil import bills annually.