Ghana and other growing economies’ inflation have been projected to see a sharp increase in 2026, linked to higher global energy prices and supply disruptions caused largely by the Middle East tensions.

This was contained in the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook for April 2026. According to the report, “Consumer price inflation in emerging markets and developing economies is projected to rise to about 5.1 percent in 2026, reversing earlier expectations that inflation would ease this year.”

Due to the Middle East tensions leading to shortfalls in both oil and gas supplies, this tends to largely affect prices of several other commodities, including food, fertilisers and metals. Citing the huge surge in Brent oil prices, which crossed $100 per barrel from about $65–$86 per barrel, marking an increase of nearly 20%, this has impacted the market, which is likely going to put pressure on households of a growing economy.

“With both oil and natural gas prices having soared amid supply shortfalls, average energy prices are forecast to increase by 24 percent in 2026. The Brent oil price is expected to average $86 per barrel, an upward revision of $26 since January. However, the supply shocks brought about by the war are broad-based. Prices for fertilisers are projected to soar, and prices of food commodities and base metals are also projected to increase”, parts of the report said.

The report also noted that average base metals like copper and gold are expected to record their highest price ever, with projections that they could rise even more than expected, rather than fall.

“Average base metals and precious metals prices are both projected to reach all-time highs. Average base metals and precious metals prices are both projected to reach all-time highs. Risks to the commodity price projections are tilted firmly toward higher prices”, a citation of the report indicated.

Under a scenario where oil prices rise sharply due to prolonged geopolitical tensions, inflation in emerging economies could climb to between 5.3 and 5.8 percent in 2026.

Average base metals and precious metals prices are both projected to reach all-time highs.

Higher energy costs are expected to slow real income growth and weaken consumer demand in many emerging economies, while also raising operational costs for businesses.

The World Bank notes that central banks in many developing economies may respond to rising inflation by maintaining tighter monetary policy, which could further affect borrowing costs and investment activity.

The outlook highlights the vulnerability of emerging markets to global commodity shocks, particularly for economies that rely heavily on energy imports.

Assuming the most acute phase of commodity trade disruptions ends shortly, and shipping volumes gradually return to near prewar levels by October, average commodity prices are projected to rise by 16 percent in 2026, the first annual increase since 2022.

BoG Governor earlier projections after Middle East tensions began

The Governor of the Bank of Ghana (BoG), Dr Johnson Asiama, warned that despite recent improvements in the country’s macroeconomic indicators, Ghana could face economic pressures if tensions in the Middle East intensify.

He gave the caution at the opening of the 129th meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Dr Asiama on Monday, March 16. Dr Johnson Asiama said the caution stems from tensions affecting key global energy and shipping routes, potentially causing volatility in global oil markets.

He added, “Geopolitical uncertainty tends to support gold prices. Given the importance of gold in our export earnings, this could improve our trade balance”.

The ongoing tensions began after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was reportedly killed in strikes by the United States (U.S.) and Israel. This development is significantly impacting travellers from Ghana to Asia, Europe, and North America, as Dubai is a major transit hub connecting travelers through the United Arab Emirates.

Ghana, being one of the dependents of the global oil supply, stakeholders began to express concerns about a possible shortage of fuel across the country. However, the Corporate Affairs Officer of the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR), Godwin Mahama Ayaba, during an appearance on March 11, indicated that Ghana is unlikely to experience fuel shortages despite rising tensions in the Middle East, citing the country’s diversified sources of petroleum imports and growing local refining capacity.

According to him, the NPA recently issued a statement indicating that the situation in the Middle East will not lead to shortages of petroleum products in the country.

“The National Petroleum Authority, which is the regulator, some three to four hours ago issued an official statement assuring all of us that as for shortage, there is no way the Iran–Israel conflict is going to affect us,” he said.