Ghana’s current inflation rate stands at 3.7% (May 2026), up from 3.4% in April and Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson says he is hopeful that the rate will not extend beyond 5% by the end of the year.

On his part the only reason why inflation could go up may be linked to the rising Middle East tension.

He made the statement on Tuesday, 3 June during an interview with Bloomberg in London saying, “We don’t see inflation increasing above five per cent by December 2026. Inflation may rise further in the coming months, from the current 3.4%, due to developments in the Middle East and rising crude prices.”

According to him, the government has implemented measures to stabilize the economy, and so far, the country has managed those shocks well.

He was, however, worried about the rising fuel prices and the impact on the country’s balance of payment, since the country will have to use more forex from the reserves to shore up the cedi.

“We are also worried about the impact on fertiliser and how that could also affect farming”, the minister noted

Also, Dr Cassiel noted that the earlier growth rate projection of 4.8% may be higher by the end of the year the economy is currently performing. This estimate was included in the national budget.

“We have seen some interesting developments in the oil and gas sector; that will impact the GDP [Gross Domestic Product] numbers at the end of this year”, he added.

The minister added that he will revise the numbers when he presents the Mid-Year Budget Review in July 2026”.

On the government’s decision to request for Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI ), after the completion of the Extend Credit Facility with the International Monetary Fund, Dr. Forson said the aim is to sustain the recent gains and assure investors of the government’s fiscal discipline going forward.

The minister also anticipated an improved investment grade after the completion of this Policy Coordination Instrument.

“Our investment grade has been improving over the past years, and we should look forward to hitting BBB after this initiative,” the finance minister added.

The finance minister also disclosed that the government will use the Mid-Year Budget Review to announce its New Economic Policy programe, aimed at stabilising recent gains, while pressing ahead with the needed reforms.

Meamwhile, Ghana will adopt the proposed Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) with the International Monetary Fund into the country’s monetary policy framework, Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr Johnson Pandit Asiama, has announced.

Speaking at the opening of the 130th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in Accra on Monday, May 18, Dr Asiama said the non-financing programme is intended to strengthen economic discipline, reinforce inflation targeting and improve interest rate transmission across the economy.

“The non-financing programme would reinforce inflation targeting, improve interest rate transmission and strengthen the BoG’s balance sheet over the medium term following recent losses,” he said.

“The PCI will also focus on strengthening the BoG’s balance sheet over the medium term by limiting quasi-fiscal activities and improving transparency and oversight of the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme (DGPP).”

According to the Governor, Ghana’s economy has shown significant improvement in recent weeks despite challenges in the external environment, making the PCI a “credible next step” to sustain growth and maintain policy credibility.

“The Ghanaian economy has improved meaningfully since our last meeting in March 2026. Since the end of March, the picture has been one of a domestically resilient economy navigating an increasingly difficult external environment. The PCI represents a considered and credible next step in Ghana’s institutional engagement with the international financial architecture,” he added.

Detailing the difference between the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the PCI, Mr Asiamah noted that while the former focused on providing monetary support, the latter is a non-financing arrangement focused on technical support, policy credibility and helping Ghana attract funding from private investors and development partners.

Dr. Asiama said the three-year programme, which was awaiting IMF Executive Board approval, was structured around six pillars, including sustaining growth-friendly fiscal adjustment, safeguarding debt sustainability and strengthening monetary and exchange rate policy frameworks.

The other pillars, he said, included strengthening fiscal transparency and governance, particularly in state-owned enterprises and quasi-fiscal activities, reinforcing financial sector stability and promoting economic diversification and inclusive growth.

Dr Asiama said the PCI would help preserve gains achieved under the ECF programme while signalling the benefits of IMF engagement and reducing Ghana’s financial dependence on IMF resources.

He continued that despite the complexities and challenging global macroeconomic conditions,

Despite challenges in the external environment, Dr Asiama said the economy remained resilient amid increasingly difficult global macroeconomic conditions.

He said the ongoing conflict in the Middle East had become a major external risk since the 129th MPC meeting, with its economic consequences now evident in global data.