Former Vice President, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, is expected to win 14 out of the 16 regions in the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential primaries scheduled for Saturday, January 31, according to the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah.

Speaking to the media on Wednesday, January 28, he noted that Dr. Bawumia would sweep massive votes in the party’s stronghold, the Ashanti Region.

He added, “Yes, [Bawumia will win in 14 regions out of 16 regions].“All the areas we have looked at are pointing in one direction, and that direction is that Bawumia will win this Saturday’s election one-touch.

According to him, “Based on our model, his lowest score will be 54 percent, which is the 57 percent we are giving him minus the three percent margin of error, or he could get up to 60 percent”.

The Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics emphasised that the data is consistent across all regions. “I am very confident in Bawumia’s numbers because they are more stable in terms of variability. There is no noise in the data,” he added.

Last year, the National Tracking Poll by Global InfoAnalytics disclosed that 56 per cent of voters and 72 per cent of committed NPP delegates want former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia as their flagbearer for the 2028 general elections.

According to the poll, 28 per cent of voters are rooting for former Assin Central MP Kennedy Agyapong, with 6 per cent each for Dr Bryan Acheampong and Dr Yaw Osei-Adutwum, and 4 per cent supporting Kwabena Agyapong.

Among NPP delegates, 19 per cent want Kennedy Agyapong, while Dr Bryan Acheampong records 4 per cent, Dr Osei-Adutwum 3 per cent, and Kwabena Agyapong 1 per cent.

The poll was conducted between December 1 and December 21 across all 16 regions of the country. Methods used include a combination of web-based, telephone, and face-to-face interviews.

In October 2025, the Pan-African civil society organisation Sanity Africa, which predicted the victory of Bernard Baidoo of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the tightly contested Akwatia by-election, released its Phase Two survey on the NPP presidential primaries.

According to the organisation’s survey, there has been a shift in the landscape as the party gears up towards the January 2026 primaries.

The abridged October report suggests that Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, popularly known as Ken, has strengthened his lead among NPP delegates, commanding 53.1% of voting intentions, representing a 1.7 percentage-point increase from the Phase One survey conducted in July.

Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) trails with 39.0%, indicating a 3.2-point drop. Behind them are Dr Bryan Acheampong at 5.0% (up 1.9 points), Dr Yaw Osei-Adutwum at 2.0% (down 1.0 point), and Ing. Kwabena A. Agyepong at 0.9% (rising from 0.3%).

The survey, carried out between July and October 2025, sampled 15,000 delegates from an estimated 218,000 in the expanded voter album across all 276 constituencies.

It boasts a 99% confidence level with a ±5% margin of error. At the regional level, Ken Agyapong sits atop as the leading candidate in 10 out of Ghana’s 16 regions, including strongholds such as Ashanti (54.8%), Central (69.0%), and Eastern (54.8%).

His biggest contender, Dr Bawumia, on the other hand, still holds his lead in the northern sector, with an advantage in the remaining six regions. He leads in the North East (70.0%) and Upper West (60.2%). Competitive races are unfolding in Bono East, Savannah, and Upper East, where margins remain slim.

Notable shifts include Dr Bawumia widening his lead in the North East Region from 51.6% to 70.0%, while Ken strengthened his position in Volta (50.8%) and Bono (53.0%).

Dr Bryan Acheampong registered significant gains in his home region of Eastern, rising to 21.7%. Sanity Africa noted that these shifts reflect evolving delegate sentiments influenced by campaign strategies and regional dynamics.

The organisation emphasised that while Ken Agyapong currently has the upper hand, the contest remains fluid. Endorsements, messaging, and campaign strategies, it said, are expected to play critical roles in shaping the outcome.

With Phase Three of the survey scheduled for release in January 2026, Sanity Africa concluded that Ken may be the one to beat, but the race is far from over.

However, the Global InfoAnalytics tracking poll named Dr Mahamudu Bawumia as the people’s preferred candidate to lead the NPP into the 2028 general election, ahead of his closest contender, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong.

The poll suggests that 57% of voters prefer Dr Bawumia as the party’s presidential candidate, while 29% picked Kennedy Ohene Agyapong.

The other contenders—former Minister of Education Dr Yaw Osei-Adutwum (6%), Minister of Food and Agriculture Dr Bryan Acheampong (5%), and former NPP General Secretary Kwabena Agyapong (3%)—trailed behind.

In the critical swing regions of Greater Accra, Central, and Western, Dr Bawumia also led decisively with 57%, followed by Kennedy Agyapong at 32%. Dr Adutwum and Dr Acheampong each secured 4%, while Kwabena Agyapong obtained 3%.

The survey further indicated that in a potential runoff between Dr Bawumia and Kennedy Agyapong, Dr Bawumia would extend his lead with 62% against Agyapong’s 38%.