Fitch Solutions has revised its 2026 real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for Ghana to 5.5%, down from the previous 5.9%.

The UK-based firm said the adjustment is due to the war in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which it described as having “dimmed Ghana’s near-term growth outlook.”

“While the country’s external and fiscal positions will remain largely insulated from the oil price shock – partly due to record-high gold prices – it will push inflation higher. Indeed, major oil marketing companies in Ghana raised petrol and diesel pump prices by around 8–11% in early March, which will add upside pressure to the transport component of the inflation basket and feed through to higher food prices and utility costs,” Fitch said in its article Strong Quarter 4 2025 For Ghana, But Iran Conflict Dims 2026 Growth Outlook.

The agency also revised Ghana’s average inflation forecast to 7.8%, up from the previous 7.3%.

“Our base case remains that the conflict will be relatively short-lived and that global energy prices will correct fairly quickly. As such, we have modestly revised up our 2026 average inflation forecast to 7.8% from 7.3%, implying a negative but manageable drag on private consumption,” Fitch explained.

It added that while the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and elevated global energy prices cast doubt on further monetary easing by the Bank of Ghana, the cumulative rate cuts of 1,250 basis points since mid‑2025 “should still feed through into stronger credit uptake in 2026, even if the policy rate remains on hold at the current 15.50%.”

“As a result, we maintain our view that materially lower borrowing costs than in previous years will underpin stronger gross fixed capital formation in 2026,” the report stated.

Fitch noted that stronger output growth in Ghanaian oil and gold production “will provide some tailwinds to exports and support headline economic growth this year.”

Ghana recorded a 6.0% GDP growth rate in 2026, buoyed by the services sector.

On the contrary, Ghana’s economy had been expected to expand modestly in the following year, with Fitch Solutions projecting annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to rise slightly from 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026.

According to the UK-based firm, “We expect annual GDP to edge up from 5.8% this year to 5.9% in 2026 as easing price pressures lift private consumption, tempered by fiscal consolidation, slow credit pass-through and a firmer cedi.”

Fitch noted that the slight growth increase resulted from easing price pressures that boosted private consumption, even as fiscal tightening and slower credit pass-through limited the pace of expansion.

The firm’s November 2025 Sub-Saharan Africa Outlook also highlighted robust economic performance during the year, with Ghana recording a 6.3% year-on-year growth in the second quarter. This was up from a revised 5.7% in the same period in 2024 and was driven by household consumption, fixed investment, and a significant drop in inflation.

The services sector—which includes finance, insurance, trade, and education—grew by 9.9% in the quarter compared to just 2% a year earlier, underscoring its contribution to the country’s economic resilience.

Fitch’s projection had signaled cautious optimism for Ghana’s economy as it balanced fiscal discipline with measures to sustain private sector growth. In November, the firm projected that the Bank of Ghana (BoG) would lower its monetary policy rate to 16.50% by the end of 2026, citing sustained currency stability and a continued decline in inflation.

At the 2026 PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) Post-Budget Forum in Accra, Mike Kruiniger, an Assistant Director at Fitch Solutions, explained that Ghana’s improving macroeconomic outlook created room for further monetary easing. “Rates have remained elevated, but the Bank of Ghana launched a decisive easing cycle this summer, cutting by 650 basis points so far — the fastest monetary easing cycle globally this year,” he said.

According to Kruiniger, inflation’s return to the central bank’s target range, combined with firm foreign exchange inflows and a stable currency, formed the basis for Fitch’s projection that the policy rate would ease to 16.50% by the end of 2026.

Ghana’s relatively stable cedi, easing inflation, and strong agricultural performance had also earned the country an upgrade in growth forecasts by Fitch Solutions. In its September 2025 Monthly Outlook report, the firm raised Ghana’s economic growth projection from 4.2% to 4.9%, citing renewed macroeconomic stability supported by falling inflation, a steady cedi, and resilient agriculture.

The report noted that the economy was still grappling with challenges, including tight fiscal consolidation, high interest rates, and stagnant oil output, but emphasized that Ghana remained firmly on a recovery path.

The upgrade followed a strong performance in the agricultural sector, which had boosted growth in the first quarter of 2025. Between January and March, GDP grew by 5.3%, compared to 4.7% during the same period in 2024. Fitch expected this momentum to continue into 2026, predicting the economy would expand by around 5.0%, supported by slower inflation, potential interest rate cuts, and increased government spending as the IMF-supported program concluded.

However, new data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) showed that growth slowed in July 2025 to 4.5%, compared to 8.3% a year earlier. Agriculture remained the strongest sector, growing by 8.0%, far higher than the 2.4% growth seen in July 2024.

Inflation for September 2025 fell to 9.4% from 11.5% in August, marking the ninth consecutive month of decline since October 2021. GSS attributed the slowdown mainly to slower food price increases. By June, inflation had dropped to 13.7%, down from 18.4% in May. Food inflation fell by 6.5 percentage points to 16.3%, while non-food inflation dropped by 3 percentage points to 11.4%.

Regionally, the Upper West recorded the highest inflation at 32.3% due to food and utility costs, while the Bono Region had the lowest at 8.4%. Later data showed Upper West’s rate declined to 24.8%, still more than twice the national average of 12.1%, while the Central Region recorded the lowest at 7.7%.

Before the GSS data release, economic research firm IC Research had projected that Ghana’s inflation rate would fall to 16% by the end of June, partly due to the cedi’s appreciation and a reduction in fuel prices easing inflationary pressures.

“The June 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data window recorded a 29.5% month-on-month and 35.3% year-on-year appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar. This exerted downward pressure on prices of imported items, with notable declines in petroleum prices and transport fares. The announced 15.0% reduction in commercial transport fares continued to restrain transport inflation, with downward spillovers for other items.

“Additionally, we estimate that the lower transport cost likely eased the month-on-month pressure observed for vegetables and tubers last month, potentially sustaining food disinflation in June 2025. Consequently, we forecast a 240-basis-point decline in the June 2025 annual inflation to 16.0%, with the month-on-month rate at 0.8%,” IC Research added.