Over the weekend, the Chief Executive Officer of the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC), Dr Riverson Oppong, disclosed that fuel prices were unlikely to increase in the second pricing window of July, citing current indicators in the international petroleum market and prevailing economic conditions at home, which pointed to a likely downward adjustment in petroleum prices.

However, fresh figures from the National Petroleum Authority (NPA), as reported by Channel One News, indicate increases in the prices of petrol, diesel, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).

Per the figures, the price of petrol has increased by GH¢0.49 per litre, rising from GH¢12.79 in the first pricing window of July to GH¢13.28 per litre in the second window, representing a 3.8% rise.

For diesel, the price floor has been increased to GH¢14.35 per litre from GH¢13.54 per litre, reflecting an upward adjustment of GH¢0.81 per litre, representing a 6.0% increase.

The LPG price floor has also inched up to GH¢10.19 per kilogram from GH¢10.11 per kilogram in the first pricing window, a difference of GH¢0.08 per kilogram, equivalent to a 0.8% increase.

The latest figures mark a reversal of the recent declines recorded in petroleum product price floors, as the NPA adjusts the benchmarks in line with prevailing market conditions.

The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) explained that the approved price floors serve as the lowest prices that Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) and LPG Marketing Companies (LPGMCs) can apply when selling petroleum products within a specific pricing window.

Under the Petroleum Product Pricing Guidelines (PPPG), all licensed OMCs and LPGMCs are expected to adhere to the minimum pricing thresholds set for each pricing period.

The regulator noted that the approved benchmarks do not take into account charges imposed by International Oil Trading Companies (IOTCs), margins retained by Bulk Import, Distribution and Export Companies (BIDECs), or the margins determined by individual marketers and dealers. These cost components are set separately by the respective industry players in line with the PPPG.

The latest increase in the price floors comes against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving the United States and Iran, which have contributed to a rise in global crude oil prices. Brent crude has recently traded above the US$80-per-barrel mark.

Industry observers warn that, should international crude prices remain elevated for an extended period, Ghana could experience fresh increases in fuel prices at the pumps. The extent of any adjustment, however, will largely depend on developments in the global market and the performance of the cedi against major trading currencies.

Last month, the NPA announced a significant reduction in fuel price floors for the June 16–30 pricing window.

Under the revised arrangement, the minimum price for petrol was reduced from GH¢15.20 per litre to GH¢13.39 per litre, while diesel's price floor declined from GH¢15.49 per litre to GH¢15.11 per litre.

The regulator directed all oil marketing companies to comply with the approved rates, barring them from selling below the established price floors.

The adjustment came after the government ended its intervention programme that had been introduced to cushion consumers against rising global crude oil prices.

According to COMAC, the reductions recorded during the first pricing window of July were largely driven by declining crude oil prices and lower prices of refined petroleum products on the international market.

Industry analysts have attributed the decline in crude oil prices to weaker demand from China, increased oil exports from the United States, and continued releases from strategic petroleum reserves by member states of the International Energy Agency (IEA).