Ghana’s relatively stable cedi, easing inflation, and robust agricultural performance have earned the country an upgrade in growth by UK-based financial analytics firm, Fitch Solutions.

Fitch, in its September 2025 Monthly Outlook report, lifted its economic growth forecast for the country from 4.2% to 4.9%, citing signs of renewed macroeconomic stability driven by easing inflation, a relatively stable cedi, and resilient agricultural performance.

Highlighting the challenges the economy is still grappling with, such as tight fiscal consolidation, elevated interest rates, and stagnant oil output, the report said Ghana’s economy remains firmly on a recovery path.

The upgrade follows a strong performance in Ghana’s agricultural sector, which boosted the economy’s growth in the first quarter of the year. Between January and March, Ghana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 5.3%, compared to 4.7% recorded during the same period last year.

Fitch believes this growth will continue into 2026, predicting the economy will expand by around 5.0%. This improvement is expected to come from lower inflation (prices rising more slowly), possible interest rate cuts, and more government spending as Ghana’s IMF-supported program comes to an end.

However, new data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) show that growth slowed down a bit in July 2025 to 4.5%, compared to 8.3% at the same time last year. Even so, agriculture remained the strongest part of the economy, growing by 8.0%—much higher than the 2.4% growth seen in July 2024.

Inflation for September 2025 dropped to 9.4% from 11.5% in August, according to the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS).

This marks the ninth month in a row of decline since October 2021. GSS attributed the latest development to the slowdown in food price increases. As of June, the country recorded a 13.7% rate—a 4.7 percentage point decline from the 18.4% reported in May.

Food inflation fell by 6.5 percentage points to 16.3%, down from 22.8% in May, whereas non-food inflation dropped by 3 percentage points to 11.4%.

The Upper West Region recorded the highest regional inflation of 32.3%, largely due to food inflation and utilities. The Bono Region recorded the lowest, at 8.4%.

On a regional level, the Upper West Region once again recorded the highest inflation at 24.8%, though this was down from 32.3% in June. This figure is more than twice the national average of 12.1%. In contrast, the Central Region posted the lowest rate at 7.7%.

Before the release of GSS’s recent data, economic research firm IC Research projected that Ghana’s inflation rate would experience a significant decline, dropping to 16% by the end of June. According to IC Research, the projected improvement was partly driven by the appreciation of the local currency and a reduction in fuel prices, both of which were easing inflationary pressures.

“The June 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data window recorded a 29.5% month-on-month and 35.3% year-on-year appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar. This exerted downward pressure on prices of imported items, with notable declines in petroleum prices and transport fares. The announced 15.0% reduction in commercial transport fares will continue to restrain transport inflation, with downward spillovers for other items.

“Additionally, we estimate that the lower transport cost likely eased the month-on-month pressure observed for vegetables and tubers last month, potentially sustaining food disinflation in June 2025. Consequently, we forecast a 240-basis-point decline in the June 2025 annual inflation to 16.0%, with the month-on-month rate at 0.8%,” IC Research added.

Ghana ended the year 2024 with 23.8% inflation. In January 2025, inflation slightly declined to 23.5%, and since then, it has continued to ease. In February, inflation declined to 23.1%; it saw another decrease in March to 22.4% and declined again in April to 21.2%.

Due to the consistent decline in the inflation rate and recorded progress with other macroeconomic variables, the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) Monetary Policy Committee reduced the monetary policy rate from 28% to 25%.

Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr Johnson Asiama, noted that the deceleration was underpinned by the tight monetary policy stance, fiscal consolidation, easing food supply constraints, and the strong recovery of the cedi.

The Bank of Ghana projected that headline inflation would fall within its medium-term target of 8 ± 2% by the end of 2025.

The Central Bank attributed this expected decline to tighter monetary policy, the strengthening of the cedi, and continued fiscal consolidation efforts.

It added that supply-side pressures had eased, resulting in lower food and overall inflation, with risks now tilted to the downside.

Nonetheless, the Bank warned that some upward risks persist, including supply chain disruptions, global trade tensions, a 2.5% increase in utility tariffs, and a new 1.0% energy levy on ex-pump prices, which could push inflation up.

Looking ahead, the Bank expects exchange rate stability to continue, supported by a stronger external sector and a buildup of international reserves that have exceeded program targets under the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility.

It noted that a tight monetary policy stance, fiscal discipline, and stable crude oil prices are likely to cushion the economy against inflationary pressures.

Also, Fitch, in July, upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from ‘Restricted Default’ to ‘B-’ with a Stable Outlook.

Fitch credited the upgrade to the country’s successful restructuring of $13.1 billion in Eurobond debt, steady fiscal consolidation, and improving macroeconomic outlook.