Election 2020 is a little over five months away. As it is with all general elections in the fourth republic, the stakes will be high. Already, the tension has started rising and, by October - November, will reach a crescendo.

Former President John Dramani Mahama is hoping for a glorious comeback on account of his own record as president from 2013 to 2016 and on the negatives of the current regime.

Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo, the sitting president is also hopeful that his mandate will be renewed for a second term by reason of his government's good performance, coupled with the fact that his most credible opponent at the poll is a man Ghanaians overwhelmingly rejected four years ago.

The confidence level must be higher in the New Patriotic Party because of the following reasons.

Since the fourth republic started, voters have always returned the ruling party to a second term in office. Rawlings' NDC first served from 1993 to 1996, and returned to office for another term - 1997 - 2000. J. A. Kuffour's NPP was voted into office first in 2001 and then given another term in 2005

NDC under Prof. J. E. A. Mills was voted into office in 2009 and the party under J. D. Mahama also retained in office from 2013 to 2016. On the basis of this alone the renewal of the mandate of the NPP government, still under Nana Addo, could be taken for granted.

The monumental Free Senior High School policy introduced by Nana Addo seems to be the magic wand that will secure electoral victory, come December, 2020. Indeed, free senior high school has brought so much relief to many Ghanaian homes. But it remains to be seen if it will be a case of one good turn deserving another.

In addition, the NPP believes that the dismal performance of the John Mahama administration that led to the outright rejection in December 2016, is still fresh in the minds of Ghanaians. Mahama is therefore expected to be rejected again.

Ongoing projects and policies already rolled out by the government are being relied on to secure victory for the NPP administration. One District One Factory (1D1F), One Village One Dam, Planting for Food and Jobs, NABCO, on-going road projects, etc. . are expected to deliver victory for Nana Addo.

Is victory for Nana Akufo-Addo and the New Patriotic Party a forgone conclusion? I don't think so.

Some Ghanaians may be disappointed in the Nana Addo led government and may want to punish them electorally.

The ban on illegal mining (galamsey) with all the good intentions was frowned upon by many. Businesses collapsed, livelihoods and properties were lost. Though the ban has been lifted, some people suffered irreparable damage. Those bearing the scars may want to exact their pound of flesh.

The circumstances under which seized excavators disappeared in broad daylight under the watch of a cabinet minister left a sour taste in the mouth of many Ghanaians.

A good number of the good people of Ghana think Nana Addo and his government have not matched their anti corruption rhetorics with concrete actions.

What's more, there is perceived corruption among some of Nana Addo's appointees. To date, no concrete action has been taken against any appointee beside loss of job.

The Office of the Special Prosecutor which many thought was going to send the corrupt running for cover has had no impact at all.

The NPP is also shooting itself in the foot in the manner it is conducting the selection of parliamentary candidates for December 2020. The party doesn't seem to learn from history. The insistence on forcing some candidates to stand unopposed at the party's primaries is highly unpopular and is frowned upon by the rank and file.

Anytime the party adopts this approach, it invariably affects their fortunes at the polls. It is therefore surprising that the party hierarchy insists on traversing this path.

The Ghanaian voter has been more sophisticated and therefore less predictable. Ghana's foremost pollster, Ben Ephson will tell you how difficult it is to accurately predict election outcomes these days.

Nothing is therefore settled. Recent happenings with regard to the voters' register suggest that the NPP believes a newly compiled register will boost their chances of winning in December. The NDC on the other hand have their hopes of emerging victorious hinged on the current register.