Election polls are a matter of utmost significance and should not be trivialized by equating them to mere lottery predictions. These polls, specifically election polls, play a pivotal role in the democratic process, particularly during electoral events.Their purpose extends beyond mere prophesying election outcomes; they serve as a crucial tool for political leaders to gauge public sentiment and preferences.

0

Similar to all forms of research, political polls are expected to adhere to rigorous scientific standards. They should be characterized by professionalism, accuracy, and, most importantly, credibility. While election poll results may not be as precise as predicting the sunrise, they must maintain a high level of accuracy, ideally within a margin of error of approximately ±5%.

1

However, when a supposedly professional poll's predictions deviate drastically by over 20%, either positively or negatively, it raises serious concerns, especially when the researchers claim independence.An example of such a failed poll was conducted by Global Info Analytics, led by Mussa Dankwa, prior to the NPP's recent Super Delegates Conference in August. They projected the top five candidates to be Dr.

2

Mahamudu Bawumia (36%), Alan Kyeremateng (33.3%), Kennedy Agyepong (24.8%), Kwabena Agyapong (1.5%), and Dr. Afriyie Akoto (1.3%). However, this prediction turned out to be entirely off the mark, with significant discrepancies in both the rankings and the predicted percentages.For instance, Dr. Bawumia's predicted percentage of 36% was remarkably different from the nearly 69% he actually received, a difference of about 33%.

3

Such a wide margin of error is unacceptable in a credible poll. The prediction for Alan Kyerematen was off by approximately -23%, as he received only about 10% of the votes. Even the placement of candidates did not match the actual results, indicating a significant lack of accuracy.The poll also inaccurately projected the inclusion of Kwabena Agyapong in the top five and the last-place finish for Addai Nimo.

4

In reality, neither of these predictions came to fruition. Addai Nimo tied for fifth place and advanced to the final round.These discrepancies raise serious questions about the credibility of Global Info Analytics in the realm of political polls. A research organization conducting a poll that deviates by over 30% and -20% margins from the actual results should be concerned about its credibility, as should the consumers of such polls.

5

Rather than making new predictions for the upcoming main congress in November, Musah Dankwa and his team should issue an apology and provide an explanation for the failure of their NPP Super Delegates prediction. These inaccurate predictions damage their credibility and, by extension, the credibility of their polls.

6

It is concerning that they continue to make bold predictions for the future, such as the prediction that Kennedy Agyapong would receive 39% of the votes in "swing regions." The classification of regions as "swing" in the context of internal NPP politics seems unfounded, given Dr. Bawumia's previous success in all 16 regions among Super Delegates. This inconsistency in their predictions only adds to the skepticism surrounding their work.

7

In conclusion, election polls are a serious business and should not be reduced to the level of guesswork. The people of Ghana and the NPP delegates who rely on these polls deserve respect and an apology for the deception disguised as political polling.

8

The stark disparities between the predictions and actual results from the NPP Super Delegates poll conducted by Global Info Analytics indicate that this particular poll was not a scientifically rigorous endeavor. Media organizations should hold such pollsters accountable and demand transparency in their methodologies to maintain the integrity of Ghana's democracy.

9

In essence, credible election polls should aim to reflect the public's sentiments rather than imposing their own perspectives on the electorate. Fake election polls that deceive the public only undermine the democratic process and provide no value to the nation's political landscape.

10