Global food prices are on track to drop for a second straight year in 2025, mainly due to a sharp decline in rice prices.

The drop is being driven by abundant global supplies and the loosening of export bans.

According to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the food price index is forecast to fall by 7% compared to last year. All three major food categories—grains, oils and meals, and other foodstuffs—are expected to see lower prices.

Grains are projected to experience the biggest decline, falling 11%, with rice prices alone expected to tumble by 29%.

This is largely a result of strong global rice production and India’s decision to ease its export restrictions.

India, which is responsible for around 40% of global rice exports, is expected to boost output by 5% in the 2024–25 season. On a global scale, rice production is forecast to rise by 2%.

The International Grains Council predicts that while rice prices may dip in the short term, they will likely hold steady in 2026 as supply and demand increase at the same pace.

Wheat prices are also expected to slide through 2026, although limited supply may help slow the pace of the drop. Even with global wheat production nearing record highs, it is still set to fall just short of meeting demand, leading to smaller stockpiles.

Maize is also anticipated to see a modest 2% price decrease in both 2025 and 2026. The drop is linked to weaker oil prices—which impact ethanol demand—and rising U.S.-China trade tariffs.

Additionally, maize’s relatively lower cost compared to wheat and soybeans could lead to increased planting, which may further pressure prices.

Still, any further decline could be contained by the fact that global maize stocks are set to reach their lowest level in over ten years.