A recent survey reported by the Office of the President suggests that a run-off in the upcoming general presidential elections could be inevitable.

This implies that the two major political parties; neither the National Democratic Congress (NDC) being led by former President John Dramani Mahama nor the New Patriotic Party (NPP), with its flagbearer, Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, are projected to secure an outright majority in the first round.

A total of 25,911 respondents were interviewed across all the 276 constituencies in the country. Out of this number, 12,664 (49%) were males with 13,247 (51%) being females, the survey shows.

When asked which political party they would vote for, 46.3% of the respondents mentioned the NDC and the NPP respectively while a considerable 3% are yet to decide their preference.

"The smaller parties and independent candidates shared 4.4% of the votes. This means the smaller parties have the capacity to push the elections to a run-off. Neither the NDC nor NPP can win the entire undecided component of electorates," the survey highlighted.

Per the survey, 49% of the respondents indicated that they are aligned with the NPP and NDC political parties. 87% of respondents indicated their decision to vote in the 2024 general elections.

"Bono (13.7%), Oti (12.1%) and Greater Accra (10.4%) are the regions with the highest number of voters still waiting to make a decision on whether to participate in the 2024 general elections," the survey recorded. Also, 77% of these respondents indicated that they are dissatisfied with politicians, hence their wavering decision to vote this year.

Around 60% of voters indicated that their choices were based on party manifestos, with a specific focus on the policies that affect their lives. Meanwhile, scandals and poor decisions by government officials were highlighted as critical reasons that could hinder re-election chances for incumbents.

Information privy to The Independent Ghana indicates that the study sought the views of registered Ghanaian voters regarding the following themes: Voting history over the past two election cycles, attachment to political parties, readiness to vote in future elections, readiness to vote if elections were held today and which party to vote for, appeal/attractiveness of the two main presidential candidates, voter choice between the two main presidential candidates and visibility of the two presidential candidates in constituencies.

The study is said to have employed a multi-stage sampling technique covering all of Ghana’s 276 constituencies. Initially, five Electoral Areas (EA) were selected on the basis of probability sampling from each constituency. Thereafter, three polling stations were randomly selected from each EA. Seven respondents who are registered voters were selected for the interview in each of the selected polling stations. The respondents in each polling station were selected based on key demographic variables such as gender, age, and profession to ensure appropriate representation by all spheres of interest in the constituency.

The survey was led by the Director of Research at the Presidency and a former lecturer at the University of Ghana's Political Science Department, Dr. Isaac Owusu, sources close to The Independent Ghana reveal.

Run-off prediction

There have been several projections of a run-off in the next polls, and among those with such surmise is German Ambassador to Ghana, Daniel Krull.

In an interview with Accra-based JoyNews on Thursday, August 22, Ambassador Krull said he personally believes Ghana will "probably have a second round of elections." This came as a surprise to him as Ghanaians do not seem to be preparing for such a scenario.

"I personally believe we will probably have a second round of elections which I'm surprised Ghanaians are not preparing for. I think there are good arguments to expect that there might be a second round," Krull stated.

The third force

With the approach of the 2024 general elections, calls for a robust third force to challenge the dominance of the NPP and NDC have grown louder.

A growing number of Ghanaians are increasingly disillusioned with the repetitive cycle of governance by these two parties, attributing their dissatisfaction to underwhelming economic progress, unfulfilled promises, rampant corruption, and the persistent mismanagement of state resources.

Some Ghanaians believe that former Trade Minister and leader of the Movement for Change, John Alan Kyerematen, and Nana Kwame Bediako, also known as Cheddar, leader of The New Force, who have filed their nomination forms to run as independent candidates could represent the third force that the country has been searching for.

There will be a run-off if no candidate secures over 50% plus 1 of the total votes cast in the first round of the 2024 presidential election.