Erling Haaland added an unexpected twist when he won the UEFA Men's Player of the Year award on August 31.

The Manchester City player claimed the award during an extravagant ceremony held at the Grimaldi Forum in Monaco. This event happened to coincide with the draw for the 2023/2024 season's Champions League group stage.

This marked his second consecutive individual award in as many weeks, following his recent victory as the PFA Men's Player of the Year in the English Premier League.

It's a clear acknowledgment of the incredible statistics he achieved last season, contributing significantly to his team's historic treble.

However, the Norwegian has his sights set on an even bigger prize: the Ballon d'Or award, which will be announced at the end of next month. This could be his first win at the age of 23.

He will be up against Lionel Messi, whose outstanding performances for Argentina during the Qatar World Cup at the end of last year have positioned him as a strong contender for an unprecedented 8th Ballon d'Or title, despite his public indifference to the award.

The decision now lies in the hands of a panel of experts and international journalists. They must choose between a player who achieved a treble in his debut season in arguably the world's toughest league and another player who scripted a football fairytale in a truly remarkable fashion.

Currently, it seems to me that Messi still holds an advantage over Haaland.

Firstly, it's worth noting that winning the UEFA Men's Best Player of the Year doesn't guarantee success in the Ballon d'Or race. In recent years, dating back to 2011, there have been four instances where different players won these prestigious awards.

For instance, in 2011, Lionel Messi claimed the Ballon d'Or, while his Barcelona teammate Andres Iniesta received the UEFA Award. Cristiano Ronaldo secured the Ballon d'Or in 2013, while Franck Ribery was honored by UEFA. In both 2019 and 2021, Messi won the Ballon d'Or ahead of UEFA's Players of the Year, Virgil Van Dijk and Jorginho, respectively. The 2013 case is often cited as a notable example of a Ballon d'Or upset.

The recurring theme here is that winning the UEFA Award doesn't necessarily foreshadow the outcome of the Ballon d'Or vote. Messi himself has triumphed over the UEFA Men's Player of the Year three times in his career, so it's entirely possible he could do it again.

Now, let's explore why Messi might have the upper hand in the 2023 Ballon d'Or race.

In addition to leading Argentina to a World Cup victory in December last year, Messi's pursuit of an eighth Ballon d'Or title further bolsters his position. Winning the World Cup is a significant achievement that can greatly influence the Ballon d'Or vote.

Furthermore, Haaland's perceived inconsistency in big games, despite his impressive record of 52 goals in 53 appearances last season, could work against him. The World Cup's global stage also puts Messi at an advantage, as this competition carries substantial weight in the eyes of voters.