A report by Fitch Solutions predicts that the National Democratic Congress (NDC), under the leadership of former President John Mahama, will emerge victorious in the upcoming December polls.

The analysis, published on Friday, April 5, 2024, asserts that the NDC is poised to secure victory after two terms of New Patriotic Party (NPP) governance.

This projection stems from the increasing public perception of economic mismanagement in Ghana, driven by persistent inflation and declining living standards.

“We anticipate that the opposition National Democratic Congress WILL WIN the upcoming December 2024 general elections in Ghana, following two terms of New Patriotic Party rule.

“The rising perceptions of economic mismanagement in Ghana due to persistently high inflation and weakened living standards will erode support for the incumbent New Patriotic Party in the elections.

As a result, support for the incumbent New Patriotic Party is expected to diminish.

Fitch Solutions also anticipates minimal social stability risks leading up to the elections, citing Ghana's established democracy and history of peaceful transitions of power as contributing factors.

“We believe that social stability risks will be limited in the run-up to the vote given Ghana’s entrenched democracy and history of peaceful transfers of power.”

Key View

We anticipate that the opposition National Democratic Congress will win the upcoming December 2024 general elections in Ghana, following two terms of New Patriotic Party rule.

The rising perceptions of economic mismanagement in Ghana due to persistently high inflation and weakened living standards will erode support for the incumbent New Patriotic Party in the elections.

We believe that social stability risks will be limited in the run-up to the vote given GhanaaEURtms entrenched democracy and history of peaceful transfers of power.

“We anticipate that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), led by former President John Mahama, will win Ghana’s December 2024 elections.

“Our forecast is informed by the incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP)aEURtms waning popularity, attributed to rising popular perceptions of economic mismanagement and the erosion of real household incomes over the past two years.

“Notably, inflation averaged 40.3% across 2023 – the highest rate since 1996-largely due to the sharp depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar (the cedi has depreciated by 21.2% against the dollar since January 2023).

“In a survey by Global Info Analytics, 65% of respondents cited the economy as their foremost concern, and it is our view that the NDC is strategically positioned to secure victory in the upcoming general elections, particularly given that 41% of those surveyed by Afrobarometer, a pan-African research institution, expressed strong disapproval of the current members of parliament.