The recent coup in Niger has sent shockwaves throughout West Africa, raising concerns about the stability of neighbouring countries.

In light of this development, security expert Vladimir Antwi-Danso has issued a stark warning about the potential implications for Ghana.

Speaking to Joy News' Benjamin Akakpo on the AM Show, Antwi-Danso highlighted the need for vigilance and urged Ghana not to underestimate the risk of similar upheavals.

He expressed that the level of indiscipline and lack of human security within the country could make it susceptible to internal unrest and called for a collective effort to safeguard democratic principles and stability in the region.

This he explained is because, West African countries, to a large extent, share similar characteristics that make them vulnerable to political unrest.

He emphasized that "regime security" should be a thing of the past, and governments must prioritize "human security" to ensure collective progress. However, he expressed concern that many governments within the sub-region focus more on electoral politics and global norms of democracy, rather than genuinely upholding the rule of law.

“The point is that we have similar specificities within the West African sub Region. Regime security should have been a thing of the past, and human security assures the people of a collective way of moving forward. Unfortunately, government upon government within the sub Region are thinking about the next election, satisfying global norms that there is democracy - frequent elections, institutions of state etc. Rule of law. But then there is no rule of law,” he said.

Antwi-Danso cited Senegal as a concerning example, where underlying issues of unemployment and social unrest are simmering beneath the surface.

He pointed out that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) should be vigilant and proactive in addressing such challenges before they escalate into larger crises.

He warned against waiting for military intervention as a signal of trouble, indicating that systemic coups, driven by a need to avert implosion, could become more prevalent.“It is only when the soldiers come in that we believe that something odd has happened. Look at what is happening in Senegal. What is ECOWAS waiting for before they trigger of the Panel of the wise to be able to at least, cool things down. And they have a problem with Casamance already. And then the population, a lot of them, it is about 18-20 percent unemployment rate in Senegal, and yet what is happening is so bad.

And when it goes so bad what happens is what I talk about as Systemic Coup. The military will just see that let us intervene before there is an implosion. So I will not be surprised that in future, you will see something like that in Senegal also,” he explained.

Ghana's vulnerabilities

While Ghana has long been regarded as a beacon of democracy in the region, Antwi-Danso cautioned against complacency.

He believes that the country faces its own set of vulnerabilities, citing a high level of indiscipline and a lack of human security as major sources of concern.

Both of these factors, he believes, could contribute to potential explosions of unrest in the country as is already evident in the series of protests that has transpired over the years.“With Ghana, we should be very careful. Let's not play the ostrich that everybody sees Ghana as a serious Democratic country. The level of indiscipline in the country, the lack of human security is such that when there is anything untoward, we will see some explosion in Ghana,” he noted.Antwi-Danso urged Ghanaian authorities and regional bodies to address the root causes of potential instability, promote human security, and prioritize the well-being of citizens.

The West African sub-region as a whole, also needs to recognize and address all security risks that service as ingredients for internal conflicts, to ensure lasting peace and stability, he added.

In other ways

SecurityThe coup could worsen the threat of terrorism and instability in the region, as Niger is a key partner of Ghana and other countries in fighting jihadist groups.

The UN envoy for West Africa, Léonardo Santos Simão, briefing journalists at UN Headquarters in New York following the coup, has warned that the Niger crisis could escalate terrorism throughout West Africa if not addressed quickly.

Economy

The coup in Niger could also have negative economic consequences for Ghana and other West African countries. Niger is a landlocked country that depends on its neighbours for trade and transit. ECOWAS has suspended all commercial and financial transactions between Niger and its 15 member states, as well as frozen the country's assets in its central banks.The coup could disrupt trade and commerce between Ghana and Niger, especially for goods such as onions, which Ghana imports from Niger.For example, some onion sellers in Ghana are worried about possible shortages and price increase due to the ECOWAS border restrictions on Niger following the coup.

Niger is one of the main suppliers of onions to Ghana, as well as other countries such as Nigeria, Benin, and Togo.

The coup could also affect foreign investment and aid to Niger, which could have spillover effects on its neighbours.

According to the World Bank, Niger received US$1.4 billion in net official development assistance in 2019, equivalent to 13.4 per cent of its GDP. Any disruption or reduction of this assistance could worsen the humanitarian situation in Niger and affect its ability to provide basic services to its population, which could cause a refugee crisis.

DiplomacyThe coup in Niger could also pose diplomatic challenges for Ghana and other West African countries. Ghana is one of the leading democracies in the region, having successfully conducted eight peaceful elections since 1992.

It is also a strong advocate of regional integration and cooperation through Ecowas. Ghana has condemned the coup in Niger and called for the immediate release and reinstatement of President Bazoum.However, Ghana could face pressure from other actors, such as France, the UN, or the AU, to take a more active role in resolving the crisis or supporting sanctions against Niger. Ghana could also face difficulties in balancing its relations with other West African countries that have different views or interests on the coup.

For instance, Ghana has close ties with Burkina Faso and Mali, which are both led by military juntas after recent coups. Ghana could be seen as siding with either the pro-democracy or pro-military camp in West Africa, depending on its actions or statements on the Niger coup.

The Niger coup could have significant impacts on Ghana's political stability, economic development, and diplomatic relations. The situation requires careful monitoring and engagement from Ghana and other West African countries to prevent further deterioration or escalation of violence or instability.

Source: The Independent Ghana | P.M. A Roberts