As the highly anticipated by-election in Assin North Constituency draws near, an air of anticipation, excitement, and nervousness envelops the region, gripping both residents and political factions alike.
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Scheduled for 27th June 2023, the Electoral Commission, under the stewardship of Madam Jean Mensa, has earnestly conveyed its dedication to orchestrating an electoral process that is seamlessly executed, impartial, transparent, and safeguarded against any potential irregularities.
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This upcoming by-election holds significant political importance, as it stems from a momentous Supreme Court ruling in 2023. The court's decision rendered Mr James Gyakye Quayson's election as Member of Parliament for the constituency null and void.
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The reason cited was that Mr Quayson held dual citizenship of Ghana and Canada at the time of his election, which violated Article 94 (2) (a) of the 1992 Constitution. The main contenders for the seat in this by-election are Mr. James Gyakye Quayson of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and Charles Opoku of the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
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In the 2020 parliamentary election, Mr Quayson secured 17,498 votes, while Madam Abena Durowaa Mensah of the NPP received 14,193 votes. The NPP candidate lost by a margin of 3,305 votes. In the same election, President Akufo-Addo received 16,067 votes (50.81%), representing the NPP, while John Mahama of the NDC polled 15,014 (47.48%) votes in the constituency.
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It is worth mentioning that this by-election comes just a month after another by-election was held in Kumawu in the Ashanti Region.
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Amidst ongoing conversations and theories about the candidates and the potential outcome, The Independent Ghana aims to present a perspective that contributes positively to the discourse and helps voters in processing comprehensive information about their respective parties.
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Examining the voting pattern of Assin North constituency, particularly between the two prominent political parties in Ghana, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC), reveals a unique trend. Unlike some constituencies where the voting outcome is relatively predictable, Assin North has proven to be more challenging to determine over the years.
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Let us delve into the data from Peace FM's election coalition portal and explore how the NPP and NDC have fared at the parliamentary level from 1996 to 2020.
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1996:
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Both parties, established in 1992, were relatively young in the contest for votes, in a general election, against a backdrop of a tense sociopolitical environment. As the ruling party at the time, the NDC secured a significant 63.0% of the total votes cast, while the NPP received a modest 34.7%. Various factors may have influenced this outcome, suggesting a general affinity towards the NDC. However, the dynamics shifted swiftly in the next election cycle, making the 2000 elections intriguing to observe.
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2000:
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Sentiments took a turn as the NPP emerged victorious with 56.6% of the votes, while the NDC managed a 39.7% vote share in the constituency. Interestingly, the NPP also won the national presidential elections that same year.
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2004:
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The love for the NPP appeared to have grown in the constituency, as they secured another victory in 2004 with 58.6% of the votes, while the NDC received 36.5%.
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2008:
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The 2008 election proved to be challenging for the NPP, as they narrowly retained the seat with 55.1% of the votes, against the formidable NDC, which garnered an impressive 42.9% vote share.
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2012:
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Dissatisfaction with the NPP seemed to have taken root in the constituency, as the NDC ended the NPP's winning streak by securing 51.6% of the votes, leaving the NPP with 44.2%.
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2016:
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The NDC's victory was short-lived, as the NPP made a strong comeback in 2016, winning by a significant margin of 56.8%, which was their second-best vote percentage since 1996. Remarkably, the NPP also won the national presidential elections in the same year. The NDC, on the other hand, received 39.2% of the votes, their lowest vote percentage in the constituency since 1996.
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2020:
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Assin North became a topic of discussion across Ghana due to the legal issues surrounding the elected candidates. In the 2020 election, James Gyakye Quayson of the NDC and Abena Durowaa Mensah of the NPP contested the seat. Mr Quayson secured 55.2% of the votes, while Ms Mensah received 44.8%. Mr Quayson's vote percentage marked the second-highest for the NDC in the constituency since 1996.
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from ghanaelections.peacefmonline.com
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Considering the fluid voter behaviour within this constituency over the past decade, predicting the outcome solely based on historical vote percentages is challenging. Some constituents interviewed by the media have expressed apathy towards both parties, indicating that they will vote based on their conviction about the respective candidates and their plans for the constituency.
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However, there are still staunch party loyalists who intend to vote for their party's candidates regardless. It will be interesting to observe the behaviour of young voters, political sceptics, older voters, and the working class in this by-election.
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The outcome of this by-election, just like most elections, remains uncertain. Only time will reveal the choice of the electorate and shape the future political landscape of the constituency.
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Source: The Independent Ghana
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