4G networks are projected to remain the primary connectivity choice in Ghana through 2033, driven by the widespread affordability of smartphones. Despite the introduction of 5G technology, Fitch Solutions predicts that only 21.2% of connections will adopt 5G by then. The dominance of 4G is largely due to the accessibility and lower cost of 4G-compatible handsets compared to their 5G counterparts.

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To manage potential over-investment risks associated with traditional licensing models, Ghana is moving towards establishing a national wholesale 5G network. Led by Minister of Communications and Digitalisation Ursula Owusu-Ekuful, this initiative aims to consolidate network infrastructure and avoid duplication of resources.

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The consortium responsible for building this network includes local entities, Indian partners, and technology leaders like Nokia and Microsoft. The project aims to enhance digital inclusion across sectors such as education, healthcare, machine-to-machine communication, and payment services.“We are also watching similar developments in Malaysia, where the Digital Nasional Berhad (DNB) project has fallen behind schedule.

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Established in March 2021, the project is being led by a special-purpose vehicle company owned by the government, which is collaborating with six mobile operators and service providers that have proved reluctant to participate.

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A change in government, issues with the vendor selection process and a decision to establish a second wholesale 5G network have further clouded the long-term sustainability outlook for the project”, it pointed out.Despite the anticipated benefits, Fitch Solutions highlights challenges seen in other markets where similar wholesale open access models have struggled.

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For example, Mexico's Altan Redes 5G network faced financial difficulties, while Malaysia's Digital Nasional Berhad project encountered delays and sustainability concerns.In Ghana, the Next-Gen Infrastructure Company (NGIC), comprising Telecel Ghana, AT Ghana, Radisys (owned by Reliance Jio), Tech Mahindra, Ascend Digital, and K-Nat, has been licensed to deploy and operate shared 5G infrastructure.

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This consortium plans to invest $145 million in capital expenditures over the next three years. However, there remains a need for transparency in the vendor selection process, particularly regarding the involvement of MTN, which currently holds a dominant 74.5% share of the mobile market as of March 2024.

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