Fitch, the ratings agency, has projected an increase in the foreign reserves of the Bank of Ghana (BoG) to reach $7.7 billion by 2025, up from $4.4 billion in 2022. This would provide a three-month import cover.

The agency stated, "Current account surpluses and projected disbursements from international financial institutions will increase Bank of Ghana's foreign reserves by an estimated $1.1 billion per year in 2023-2025, after a $4.4 billion fall in 2022, reaching $7.7 billion (about three months of current external payments) in 2025, from 1.6 months in 2022."

Fitch also expects a current account surplus of 1.1% of GDP in 2023, compared to a 2.1% deficit in 2022, driven by non-payment of interest on selected external debt pending a restructuring and a notable reduction in merchandise imports.

The agency anticipates that the current account will remain in surplus in 2024 and 2025, with the value of the cedi against the dollar expected to strengthen as a result.

However, Fitch believes that another round of local-currency debt exchange is unlikely in the near future. These debt exchanges have led to a debt service reduction of ¢52 billion in 2023, equivalent to about 6% of estimated 2023 GDP or 39% of estimated 2023 revenue and grants.

As of August 2023, Ghana's Gross International Reserves (GIR), excluding Encumbered Assets and Petroleum Fund, stood at $2.08 billion, providing approximately 1.0 month of import cover. According to the Bank of Ghana's September 2023 Summary of Economic and Financial Data, reserves increased from $1.406 billion (0.7 months of import cover) in April 2023 to $2.162 billion (1.0 month of import cover) in May 2023, and $2.235 billion in June 2023 (1.0 month of import cover).

Reserves remained at $2.239 billion (1.0 month of import cover) in July 2023 and $2.089 billion (1.0 month of import cover) in August 2023.