The Bank of Ghana foresees a further decrease in headline inflation, expected to fall within the range of 13-17% by the end of 2024, gradually returning to the medium-term target range of 6-10% by 2025, unless unforeseen disruptions occur.

As outlined in the January 2024 Monetary Policy Report, the ongoing disinflation process is anticipated to persist, with clear indications that the existing macroeconomic framework, backed by the International Monetary Fund-Economic Credit Facility program, is yielding positive outcomes.

While the report highlights potential risks to the inflation outlook, particularly related to geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on commodities markets, particularly international crude oil prices, the Bank of Ghana emphasizes that all indicators of core inflation are declining, signaling a sustained alleviation of underlying inflationary pressures.

Improved foreign exchange inflows from IMF-ECF disbursements, the cocoa syndicated loan, and expected funding from the World Bank are expected to bolster forex inflows.

Furthermore, initiatives such as the Gold for Reserves program, repatriation of foreign exchange from mining and oil companies, and reduced debt service payments are projected to bolster reserve accumulation and promote exchange rate stability, further aiding the disinflation process.