An economic research firm, IC Research, has projected that Ghana’s inflation rate will experience a significant decline, dropping to 16% by June ending.

According to IC Research, the projected improvement is partly driven by the appreciation of the local currency and a reduction in fuel prices, both of which are easing inflationary pressures.

“The June 2025 CP [Consumer Price Index]I data window recorded a 29.5% month-on-month and 35.3% year-on-year appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar.

"This exerted downward pressure on prices of imported items with notable declines in petroleum prices and transport fares. The announced 15.0% reduction in commercial transport fares will continue to restrain transport inflation with downside spillovers for other items,”

“Additionally, we estimate that the lower transport cost likely eased the month-on-month pressure observed for vegetables & tubers last month, potentially sustaining food disinflation in June [2025]. Consequently, we forecast a 240 basis points decline in the June 2025 annual inflation to 16.0% with the month-on-month rate at 0.8%", IC Research added.

Inflation eased to 18.4% on a year-on-year basis, marking a 2.8% decrease in the rate of increase.

This marks the fifth consecutive reduction in the inflation rate this year so far.

As of May 2025, the country recorded an 18.4% rate, a 2.8% decline from the 21.2% reported in April. This is also the lowest rate recorded since February 2022.

The decline stems from the significant drop in transport fares and non-food inflation, according to the Government Statistician Alhassan Iddrisu.

Ghana ended the year 2024 with 23.8% inflation. In January 2025, inflation slightly declined to 23.5%. And since then it has continued to ease. In February inflation declined to 23.1%; it saw another decrease in March to 22.4% and declined again in April to 21.2%.

Discussing improvement with macroeconomic variables - exchange rate—the cedi has appreciated by approximately 24% against the US dollar, contributing to a decline in inflation.

The current inflation rate marks a significant milestone, as Ghana’s inflation rate skyrocketed to 31.26 percent in 2022 due to disruptions and cedi depreciation.

President Mahama has projected that single-digit inflation will be reported by the country at the end of the first half of the year.

In an address at the Ghana-EU Business Forum held at the Kempinski Hotel in Accra yesterday, President Mahama stated that his government will achieve this feat by effecting a tighter monetary policy rate, cutting expenditure, and reducing debt accumulation.

"Inflation, which peaked at 23.8% at the end of 2024, has begun to ease, falling to 21.2% in April 2025 largely due to moderation of both food and nonfood inflation and prudent fiscal management. We're projecting to achieve a single-digit inflation trajectory by the middle of 2026.”

President Mahama noted there are positive signs that the country is recovering in a disciplined and inclusive way, pointing to the fact that Ghana’s international reserves have increased from $8.9 billion in December 2024 to $10.6 billion by April 2025. This is equivalent to almost five months of import cover.

"This reflects enhanced export earnings, particularly from gold and non-traditional exports, as well as timely disbursements for our multilateral partners. These figures, though early in the year, are clear signs of a disciplined and inclusive economy," the president added.

He stressed that the government is enforcing contract sanctity and implementing firm measures to safeguard investor rights.In March, the Monetary Policy Committee by a majority decision, decided to raise the Monetary Policy Rate by 100 basis points to 28.0 percent to re-anchor the disinflation process. As inflation becomes firmly anchored, the Committee noted that it will reassess the scope for a gradual easing in the policy stance.

During the 2025 budget presentation on March 11, Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson announced the government’s objective to reduce inflation to 11.9% by the end of the year. The president’s projection suggests that the government may have to re-evaluate its earlier inflation projection.Fitch Solutions has also forecasted a more conservative outlook, predicting Ghana's inflation will average 18.8% in 2025 and end the year at 13.6%. This projection suggests that while inflation may decrease, it might not reach the government's ambitious target.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also provided its assessment, projecting Ghana's inflation to end 2025 at 17.5%, which is also higher than the government's target.

With the unprecedented performance of the cedi in recent times and the calls for reduction in prices of goods and services to reflect the gains in the cedi, stakeholders continue to monitor the financial sector to observe how the country’s inflation rate will be affected.