Cocoa prices are expected to surge in 2025, with projections indicating a potential rise to as high as US$9,600 per metric tonne (pmt) due to tight global supply conditions.According to Databank’s 2025 projections, “The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), effective in early 2025, will further restrict supply availability; likely keeping prices elevated amid strong global demand for chocolate.

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”This forecast follows a remarkable price increase in 2024, when cocoa prices nearly doubled by mid-November, reaching US$8,523 from an initial US$4,916. The 73.4 percent rise was driven by supply shortages in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, exacerbated by the impact of El Niño on yields, as well as growing global demand for chocolate.By December 2024, global cocoa prices hit US$10.32 per kilogram, marking a 30.

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73 percent increase from November and a staggering 145.2 percent rise from December 2023.However, the domestic cocoa industry in Ghana has faced significant challenges, particularly in securing funding. Inefficiency on the part of the industry regulator, Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), has been cited as a major factor.

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Last year, COCOBOD struggled to raise its annual syndicated loan from its usual partners, preventing local farmers from fully benefiting from the price increase.In response, COCOBOD announced a significant cocoa price increase for the 2024-2025 season, setting the price at GH¢48,000 per tonne, equivalent to GH¢3,000 per 64-kilogramme bag. This marked a 129.36 percent increase from the previous season.

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However, civil society groups argued that this price, approximately US$185 at the time, was still insufficient for the farmers.As the industry prepares for the EU’s new deforestation regulation, the local cocoa sector faces significant challenges. The EUDR mandates that cocoa commodities entering the EU market must be traceable and proven to be deforestation-free post-December 2020.

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While the regulation aims to reduce environmental degradation, it imposes additional burdens on cocoa producers.In response to these new challenges, the government has launched a National Cocoa Management System (NCMS), which includes a Cocoa Traceability System to help meet EUDR requirements. The system will map cocoa farms and ensure compliance with deforestation-free standards.

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However, the implementation of this system remains resource-intensive, posing further obstacles for local producers.

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